Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030?
Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030?
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Inspired by a $400 bet to the affirmative by Dale Vince on longbets.
I believe the bet is about the adult UK population, so here on manifold we'll go based on that.
Vince's argument:
Veganism is growing rapidly in the UK - Sainsbury's, one of the country's leading supermarkets says 25% of the adult population will live on a plant-based diet by 2025. Pollsters Ipsos Mori believe 38m adults - over 50% of adults will be vegan by 2034. I believe the trend is speeding up, so half of UK adults will be vegan by 1st Jan 2030.
Vince doesn't have a challenger yet, in case anyone is interested.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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