Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030?
Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030?
Plus
21
Ṁ9212030
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by a $400 bet to the affirmative by Dale Vince on longbets.
I believe the bet is about the adult UK population, so here on manifold we'll go based on that.
Vince's argument:
Veganism is growing rapidly in the UK - Sainsbury's, one of the country's leading supermarkets says 25% of the adult population will live on a plant-based diet by 2025. Pollsters Ipsos Mori believe 38m adults - over 50% of adults will be vegan by 2034. I believe the trend is speeding up, so half of UK adults will be vegan by 1st Jan 2030.
Vince doesn't have a challenger yet, in case anyone is interested.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will more than 15% of the US population identify as vegan by 2030?
7% chance
Will >50% of the United States population identify as vegan by 2080?
30% chance
Will sales of plant-based meat increase in the UK in 2024 compared to 2023?
72% chance
Will at least 50% of Americans be vegetarian by the end of 2035?
6% chance
Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?
28% chance
Will meat be banned in the UK by 2030?
9% chance
Will vegetarianism be mandated population wide in at least one country by 2050?
10% chance
Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?
30% chance
Will I still be vegan by the end of 2026?
80% chance
Will less than 70% of agricultural land be used for farm animals by 2030?
41% chance