[Metaculus] Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?
[Metaculus] Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?
Basic
2
Ṁ26
2030
32%
chance

Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans (for any variety or type of soybean). The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption). This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be published before January 1, 2030.

The relevant process must eliminate a sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to at least one of the proteins: Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K.

Relevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). Metaculus Admins will decide, at their discretion, whether the reduction in allergens is sufficiently convincing


This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

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