When will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the needed 270 votes?
When will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the needed 270 votes?
Basic
10
Ṁ8372050
1%
2023
1.7%
2024
3%
2025
4%
2026
18%
2027
73%
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia (Explanation). It has been enacted into law by 16 states and DC with 205 electoral votes (Map of states). It needs an additional 65 electoral votes to go into effect.
from nationalpopularvote.com (accessed 10/10/23)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach it's quorum before 2035?
20% chance
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]
19% chance
[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
16% chance
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2032 election?
26% chance
Will at least one state that enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact withdraw from it by EOY 2035?
52% chance
Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?
17% chance
When will be the next year that a presidential candidate gets at least 500 electoral votes?