This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), there is a military or paramilitary attack on U.S. soil that is:

1. Directly carried out by Iran, or

2. Credibly attributed to Iran by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible international reporting

To qualify, the strike must:

• Occur within the territorial United States, including all 50 states and Washington D.C.

• Involve the use of physical force or weaponry, such as missiles, drones, explosives, or armed incursions

This includes:

• Drone or missile strikes launched or directed by Iran hitting U.S. territory

• Sabotage or bombing campaigns linked to Iranian state or proxy actors

• Coordinated kinetic attacks carried out by Iran’s IRGC or affiliated forces on U.S. soil

Does NOT qualify:

• Cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns

• Attacks on U.S. embassies, bases, or personnel outside the United States

• Domestic terrorism with no clear operational link to Iran

• Attacks by non-state actors not credibly linked to Iran by U.S. intelligence or major media outlets

Resolution Sources:

This market will resolve based on official statements from the U.S. government (e.g. Pentagon, White House) or a consensus of credible media reporting (e.g., Reuters, AP, NYT, BBC, WSJ).

If no such attack occurs or is confirmed by the deadline, the market will resolve to “No.”