New Pope in 2025?
31
Ṁ51202026
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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Resolution Criteria: New Pope in 2025?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new Pope is officially elected and confirmed by the College of Cardinals at any point between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM PT. The new Pope must be publicly announced and assume the role of the Bishop of Rome and leader of the Catholic Church.
If no new Pope is elected and confirmed within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to “No.”
Resolution Sources:
The primary resolution source for this market will be official Vatican announcements. Reputable media sources such as Vatican News, BBC, Reuters, Associated Press, or other widely recognized news outlets may also be used for confirmation.
Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM PT.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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