Will Luigi mangione's manifest be released by the authorities or legal team by the end of 2024?

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Ṁ985

Jan 2

70%

chance

ALL

Update 2024-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market resolves based on the release of the confirmed manifesto found in his backpack
- If authorities confirm a previously released blog post is identical to the manifesto found in his backpack, this will count as a release

Update 2024-10-12 (PST): - Market will resolve YES if the manifesto is released by the legal team, which will count as a release by authorities (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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If it is leaked, or only gets to be public because his lawyer wants it to be known in court, does this resolve YES?

@harfe no way his trial starts before EoY

yes if the legal team releases it ill count it as the authorities

sold Ṁ30 NO

How does this resolve if his manifesto is not released by the authorities because he already made it public himself? How does this resolve if there are multiple manifestos (manifestii?), the shorter substack one which has already been posted + a longer manifesto with the authorities decline to release?

@placebo_username I'm looking for the real confirmed one in his backpack. If the police confirm this blog is identical to the one he had on him I'll consider it

bought Ṁ25 YES

retracted

@gamedev looks unlikely: https://manifold.markets/snazzlePop/did-luigi-mangione-author-the-manif

@harfe You are correct, I didn't check further while nodding off last night, my bad

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