Resolution Criteria:

For this question, a "hallucination" is just the model making up something that's completely detached from reality. Making a mistake is not a hallucination, but if you ask for a citation, and it creates a citation from a book that doesn't exist that would be a hallucination. "Regularly" means they do it in a high enough fraction of cases that "it matters". If there are good hallucination benchmarks, I will rely on those. If there aren't, then I'll go mainly on whether or not the research community as a whole believes the problem still exists.

Motivation and Context:

Today's models hallucinate a lot. They make up facts, they make up events. Ask them for a summary of a book that doesn't exist and some fraction of the time they'll tell you what they think it says given the title and author. This is a massive problem, and prevents these models from being deployed in safety-critical settings. I want to know if the hallucination problem will remain a big problem.

Question copied from: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/forecasting-ai-future.html