Most effective strategy in prediction markets
22
แน714Dec 1
94%
Monitor news and act quickly
91%
Monitor new markets and trade early
80%
Follow most accurate market (Polymarket?)
76%
Nothing ever happens
69%
Follow good traders
62%
Build technical prediction models
59%
Extracting residual liquidity in resolving markets
57%
Use historical data and analytics
55%
Gather information unknown to average traders
54%
Develop a good sense of probability and think independently
48%
Buy low sell high before resolution to reduce risks
43%
Bet on rare events
35%
Arbitrage
24%
Anti-follow bad traders
20%
Ask Large Language Models
10%
67
What trading strategies do you find most effective (minimize input, maximize output) in prediction markets?
An anwer will resolve to its market price percentage at the closing of the market.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@kamn Not easy to describe, apart from the fact that it involves very disparate ways of thinking, never holding slavishly to a strategy, but letting the market define how I approach it.
@vdb My sense of probabilities is probably piss poor, espescially at the extremes. I may be more adept at seeing things as complexly as possible.
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