@bens father works for the US State Dept., He told me "I'd say there's still a 20-ish percent chance we don't become a province of Pakistan, so I wouldn't bet all my life's savings on it."

Just passing it on...

India shouldn't feel bad really, they will have the US as their neighbours. Its a win-win on all fronts

Here I was thinking all this time that the opposite was true. Thank you for opening my mind to alternate and inevitable realities. Therefore I promptly bought YES

I love this market

hello ia m prgnan vsihak samier

Huh

No, but solely because Zapatistas will beat them to it

Rebel Zapatista Autonomous Municipalities - Wikipedia

Sure. If the donation is “meaningful” enough. It’s all for sale.

this is one of the most ludicrous markets I have ever seen in all of Manifold, safe to say

@duck_master shut up

Temporarily unlisting this market, so this isn't the first market people see when they log on to Manifold...

@SG who do you think you are? If the people want to bet on this, allow them to.

@SG 1984

@AUTOMATA I would like to clarify the resolution criteria. Please respond at the earliest convenience.

My lawyers have been researching this market all night. They inform me that according to Wikipedia, the "administrative units" of Pakistan currently comprise:

four provinces, one federal territory, and two disputed territories: the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan; the Islamabad Capital Territory; and the administrative territories of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit–Baltistan.

If the USA becomes an additional "province" of Pakistan alongside Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, & Balochistan, resolution is simple. However, if the USA becomes part of Pakistan but instead as a "disputed territory", along with "Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit–Baltistan", how will this market resolve?

@Ziddletwix Pakistan would swiftly resolve any issues surrounding a disputed status. In the unlikely event that America is not incorporated as an official province, the market would resolve to no.

@AUTOMATA Understood, thank you.

@Ziddletwix Why are you so sure of “no”?

@AUTOMATA non-epistemic trades, emotional hedge in case it doesn’t happen

@Ziddletwix makes sense, I was afraid you were a fool.

Can the no votes offer some insight into their view? This seems open and shut to me.

@AUTOMATA Not enough time. Like you, I don't see how this fails to be the case, but it will likely be a few more years.

@Mana I’m glad you recognize the inevitability of this. I guess we’ll see how things go.

@AUTOMATA The USA and Pakistan are completely different. They're on different continents, speak different languages (USA is predominantly English-speaking, Pakistan is predominantly Urdu-speaking), have different ethnic groups (the USA's biggest ethnic group is white people, whereas Pakistan is a mix of various South Asian tribes), and the USA's GDP is almost 100x that of Pakistan's. I can't see any possible scenario in which this would happen where the two countries' populations wouldn't immediately start screaming to separate from each other.

@duck_master I wish I lived in whatever fantasy la la land you seem to reside in. You’re a nut job. What are you even talking about? Matter of fact, you sound quite disturbed. I wish you well and I hope your life improves.

Find God.

@AUTOMATA Having crazy people like him on the same side as me is making me really nervous.

Should I market dump all my shares?

@Mana I’d buy some YES if I were you. It’s never too late to wake up.