What is Grok 4's performance on METR's task length evaluation? | Manifold

What is Grok 4's performance on METR's task length evaluation?

6

Ṁ251

2026

29%

0 to 1.5 Hours

37%

1.5 to 2 Hours

18%

2 to 2.5 Hours

11%

2.5 to 3 Hours

6%

More than 3 Hours

Resolves based on the METR's measurement of the duration of tasks that can complete with a 50% success rate.

https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

Grok 4 Heavy does not count

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Grok 4 Heavy market here:

https://manifold.markets/AffineTyped/what-is-grok-4-heavys-performance-o

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