@mods the market creator's account has been deleted. Please evaluate market for resolution or clarification given recent events eg. the Turkish assault on Manbij – https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/world/middleeast/syria-turkey-kurds.html

@DanielFox9fff I'll close trading while we discuss it, so people are not trading on the volatility of every single word in my comment.

I'm not an expert on this topic, but maybe some other moderator is. It looks like the "by the end of 2024" part is at least pretty safe here. So participants in the market should try to convince me (or some other mod) that this was an:

• "invasion"

• "against Syria"

It seems like it was some kind of force that could probably count as an invasion.

But was it "against Syria", or "against" some other entity that is not "Syria"? Your link was to a paywalled source and the only part I could see on the page said things like "US-backed" and "Kurdish-controlled" so I'm a little doubtful to begin.

If you can put together something compelling, make sure to ping the mods again so someone can review it.

@Eliza here's the relevant Wikipedia article, it seems pretty up to date: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Manbij_offensive

As I understand it this is what happened: The Syrian National Army—a Turkish proxy—attacked the city of Manbij and tried to capture it. They failed due to resistance by the Kurdish forces controlling the city. Manbij is currently a part of the autonomous region of Rojava which doesn't claim independence (yet) from Syria, despite practical autonomy.

I don't think Manbij being a part of Syria is really in dispute at the moment. The term invasion would certainly be applicable to soldiers with weapons trying to take territory. The only potential issue as I see it is whether the SNA is a foreign force.

Their independence from Turkey is in dispute, but they seem to often—including in this case—act in concert with the Turkish armed forces. Also, the areas captured by them are being slowly integrated into Turkey proper, so their intentions are suspect.

I would say this warrants a YES resolution.

Would it be be reasonable to decide a positive resolution requires Turkish Army soldiers on the ground in Syria? Maybe, but that seems overly restrictive. If Turkish proxy forces were to successfully take control of half the country, that territory was quickly connected to the Turkish electrical grid, Turkish was forced to be the language taught in schools, and other acts of sovereignty were carried out by the Turkish government, would that be an invasion? Pretty clearly yes. Turkey effectively exercises sovereignty over all the territory previously captured by the SNA, it's likely they would continue the process with forget captured territory, implying the SNA's loyalty to Turkey.

Thus I think this market ought resolve to YES or clarify the resolution criteria as requiring a successful invasion, not just an invasion attempt.

AANES - Rojava (Syria) All eyes on Manbij! Massive columns of the Turkish led SNA (Joint Forces) have reached Manbij and are being deployed to the frontlines with SDF held Manbij

https://x.com/scharomaroof/status/1863990489864708314

Is this sufficient to resolve this market YES? If not, could you clarify the resolution criteria?