Background

The current MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires on December 1, 2026. The upcoming negotiations are expected to be particularly challenging due to owners' desire to implement a salary cap, which the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) has historically opposed. The last major work stoppage in MLB occurred in 1994-95, resulting in the cancellation of the World Series. More recently, the 2022 season faced a lockout but was ultimately resolved without losing regular season games.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• The 2027 MLB regular season's Opening Day occurs later than originally scheduled due to CBA-related issues (lockout, strike, or extended negotiations)

This market will resolve NO if:

• The 2027 MLB regular season begins as originally scheduled

• The season is delayed for reasons unrelated to CBA negotiations (e.g., pandemic, natural disasters)

Considerations

• Key negotiation points will likely include:

  • Implementation of a salary cap

  • Revenue sharing between teams

  • Player compensation and benefits

• Both sides have strong financial incentives to avoid a work stoppage

• Recent leadership changes in the MLBPA could affect negotiation dynamics

• Historical precedent suggests that while lockouts are possible, they often resolve before impacting regular season games