I think I should have paid more attention to historical cases of US gunboat diplomacy and how we actually do have a reference class and the military buildup off the coast of Venezuela without conflict isn't anywhere near as unprecedented as I thought:

• Operation Uphold Democracy (Haiti, 1994)

  • The U.S. deployed two aircraft carriers (USS America and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower), over 20 warships, and approximately 25,000 troops. The force included the 82nd Airborne Division, which had actually launched from Fort Bragg and was mid-air en route to the invasion when the order to stand down was given.

  • The operation cost approximately $2.25 billion in 1994, which is over $4.3 billion in 2025 dollars. This makes it financially comparable to or potentially more expensive than the current Venezuela operation (estimated in the low billions for a multi-month carrier deployment)

• Operation Blue Bat (Lebanon, 1958)

  • The U.S. deployed three aircraft carriers (USS Essex, USS Wasp, and USS Saratoga), 70 warships, and 14,000 troops (including 6,000 Marines) to Beirut to support the pro-Western government of President Camille Chamoun against perceived threats from UAR-aligned rebels.

  • approximately $200 million in 1958, which is roughly $2.25 billion today.

• Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1996)

  • President Clinton deployed two carrier battle groups (centered on the USS Nimitz and USS Independence) to the waters near Taiwan.

  • The operational costs for two carrier groups for several weeks would run into the hundreds of millions (unadjusted), comparable to the sustainment costs of the current Venezuela flotilla.

You might be saying "well these are cases where Gunboat Diplomacy succeeded; what is different is that Maduro is not conceding or brokering a deal the US is happy with so the US will politically be forced to strike or face political embarrassment which Trump hates"

Actually we have tons of US gunboat diplomacy failures where the US's adversary called the US bluff and there still was no military action by the US. This might indeed happen here:

• Task Force 74 & The Indo-Pakistani War (1971)

  • led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (the most powerful ship in the world at the time) -> The U.S. force eventually just sailed away. It was a complete failure of coercive diplomacy

• The "Red Line" Standoff (Syria, 2013)

  • five U.S. Navy destroyers (armed with dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles) to park off the coast of Syria, ready to strike Damascus. -> The U.S. did not strike. Instead, Washington pivoted to a diplomatic deal brokered by Russia to remove some chemical weapons.

• The North Korea "Armada" (2017)

  • the U.S. converged three carrier strike groups (USS Ronald Reagan, Theodore Roosevelt, and Nimitz) in the Sea of Japan. This coincided with "fire and fury" rhetoric demanding North Korea denuclearize. -> Kim Jong Un escalated missile tests and despite this, the U.S. did not strike. The situation eventually pivoted to summit diplomacy

• Operation Big Pine (Honduras/Nicaragua, 1983–1989)

  • For years, the U.S. maintained a massive, expensive military presence in Honduras specifically to intimidate the Sandinista government in neighboring Nicaragua. -> The Sandinistas did not step down and continued fighting U.S.-backed Contras for nearly a decade -> The U.S. never invaded Nicaragua. The military buildup itself completely failed to force a surrender or regime change through intimidation alone.

In these historical cases, when the U.S. faced an intransigent adversary and a high cost of war, the result was usually reframing the goalposts (e.g., accepting a "deal" that falls short of regime change) or an ignominious withdrawal where the fleet quietly departs after a "de-escalation" narrative is constructed.

I see this as increasingly likely now and this whole thing for me is a good lesson in "before you make a bet, pick up a history book"

Also on the topic of the situation escalating into conflict so that political embarrassment can be avoided, I think it fairly likely for Trump to declare victory on some technicality. E.g. "We have seized their tanker, we have destroyed their drug routes, and we are charging them billions. Maduro is weak and broken. I am bringing our beautiful sailors home because we have done what we came to do."

Trump hates embarrassment, but he is a master at refusing to be embarrassed by simply claiming he won, regardless of the facts on the ground. A bloody, expensive war offers no such escape hatch.

whoops let me embed.

It's happening!

@noney T A C O

@noney isn't he just saying they are stopping drugs that are coming in via land?

Embed fail.

If you have to have a million updates, you may not have crafted a good market.

@KevinBlaw how can you predict the future?

@ValYa Uhhhhhh. What?

@KevinBlaw While I have differing opinions on what 'military action' is and how public that would be, I think the market has been pretty consistent for the question asked.

The updates are mostly the AI surfacing clarifications around edge cases, not changes to the core question.

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I guess my take is that if your market has had to require 10 updates for clarification, then the core of the question was never clear, and it's subject to the whim of the creator.

@KevinBlaw not true. He just good to us and gave clear explanations for each special case

@1bets yes. Praise the dear leader.

Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html

@AlexanderTheGreater It was subject to seizure for being on 'the list' for breaching Iran sanctions previously.

Chances are it was really seized as a shot across the bows (literally) of Cuba, who launder the oil into India who in turn further wash it and sell to China. In exchange the Cubans provide 'security advisors' to the Venezuelan regime.

Edit - Evidence free tin foil hat time - Rumour has it that despite the public bluster, Maduro quite likes the cash and immunity deal he's being offered to 'transition to democracy' but outside actors are 'persuading' him to stay in place. The Cuban regime would stand to lose a valuable source of revenue if Venezuelan oil were no longer subject to sanctions. The arched piece fits into the square hole...

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/hegseth-chairman-joint-chiefs-staff-brief-gang-eight-us-lawmakers-source-says-2025-12-09/?utm_social_post_id=618516656&utm_social_handle_id=1652541

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to brief the "Gang of Eight" lawmakers on Tuesday afternoon, according to two sources familiar with the plan and a Trump administration official.

The "Gang of Eight" - intelligence committee and Senate and House of Representatives leaders from both parties - are traditionally briefed on major national security actions.

@CornCasting I dunno. My model was always since October been it should happen late November or Early December after typhoon season ends. But we are slowly edging away from early December. So if something is going to happen I cant think what the "hold up" is anymore if it doesn't happen within the next week or 2 and I am forced to concede this might just be all-for-show-and-political-pressure. Gunboat diplomacy working so well I fell for it, essentially.

I think the "real" chance of something happening before end of year now is probably below 50% now (maybe ~40%) but I still think higher than community predictions so I guess I keep holding onto my position.

@CornCasting What are your thoughts on how the holidays play into this? Do you think vacations will weigh more heavily downward than the time decay factor?

@Quroe I don't think the US has ever in its history initiated a military conflict around Christmas, only engaged in ongoing conflicts. Outside View would say yes, absolutely, the holiday should weigh more heavily downward than simple time decay factor.

I think there is essentially a cliff where if nothing happens and holiday starts chances drop precipitously.

Of course then I'll sell my mana and immediately thereafter the attacks will begin.

@CornCasting good thing we have a market that includes next year: https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/military-conflict-between-the-us-an-ES6shSpnd6?r=QWxleGFuZGVyVGhlR3JlYXRlcg

@CornCasting TACO

@RenaoJedi lol, I kinda want Maduro to say that

White House National Security Strategy for 2025 just got released (PDF warning). The Monroe doctrine and Western Hemisphere were the first areas of focus.

@Galahad Oh, now what's your algorithm, hm?

I did a line of Venezuelan cocaine last night and the ghost of Simón Bolívar appeared before me and said that the attack would take place on the last week of December

to which I replied that I didn't speak Mexican