Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the Greens in Germany's next federal election?
Plus
60
Ṁ81252025
91%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Over the last month the far-right AfD has risen sharply in the polls.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
Is this a permanent change in Germany's political landscape?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Strong yes for me. Not only are AFD better than the greens right now, the trend is upwards and downwards respectively. Also, the greens are in the ruling coalition, which always means downward trend in the next elections. Also, the greens will be blamed for any energy price spikes, and since energy prices are very volatile in recent years, spikes are virtually guaranteed sooner or later.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
65% chance
Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
81% chance
Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election?
27% chance
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
34% chance
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the centre-right CDU in Germany's next federal election?
4% chance
Will the FDP be part of the next German parliament?
42% chance
Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024?
4% chance
Will AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) become the leader of polls in Germany in 2024?
4% chance
What will be the results of the next German federal election?
What share of the vote will the AFD receive in the next German federal election?
23% chance