Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028? | Manifold

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Basic

4

Ṁ65

2028

56%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.

Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive. For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks. The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.

If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name. If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

Based on other, more subjective AI bubble markets and my own personal opinions, I currently think this is more likely than not.

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