The FDA declared an Ozempic shortage in early 2022. This allowed low-cost "compounding pharmacies" to avoid patents, producing and selling compounded versions of Ozempic to the benefit of dircet-to-consumer online pharmacies like Hims & Hers.
In October 2024, the FDA changed the Ozempic designation to "available," but the shortage will only end when it is designated as "resolved." However, Ozempic availability is a hotly contested political issue, and the FDA could go back and forth on the designation, especially with RFK in the picture and now this question of Greenland (Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk is in Denmark).
This bet asks, at the end of December 31st 2025, will the FDA designate Ozempic as "resolved" (YES), or any other designation e.g. shortage, available, high demand (NO).
1,000
3.00Kalshi market on this just resolved: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxozempicshort/ozempic-shortage#KXOZEMPICSHORT-26
@WilliamGunn This bet resolves on December 31st. The FDA's decision is subject to lawsuits and other political interventions that could change today's announcement.
@WilliamGunn The Dec 31st condition is in the title, it's in the post text, and you are allowed to sell your position before the market resolves.
Also the whole point of the bet is that the FDA goes back and forth on these things (they waffled on an earlier decision on October).
@WilliamGunn not only did you fail to read the question title, you also failed to read the resolution criteria, AND the clarification from the comment below this one, AND yet you still have tha audacity to leave a sarcastic comment like this? Oooof.
will this market resolve YES as soon as Ozempic is designated as "resolved" or does it just resolve only on December 31st dependent on the status on that specific day?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00