At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs
Plus
12
Ṁ70112031
97%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if at least one of the most powerfull neural nets publicly known to exist by end of 2030 was trained using at least 10^26 FLOPs. This is ~3 exaFLOP/s years. It does not matter if the compute is distributed, as long as one of the largest models used it. A neural net which uses 10^26 FLOPs but is inferior to other models does not count. Low precision floating point such as fp32, fp16, or fp8 is permitted.
Resolves NO if no such model exists by end of 2030.
If we have no good estimates of training compute usage of top models, resolves N/A.
Show less
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
predictedYES
See also:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?
9% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
82% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
91% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
83% chance
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States?
89% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?
77% chance
Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025?
5% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs
96% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?
52% chance
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?