If Trump won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
If Trump won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
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If Trump won the election, will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than 2022?
This market will resolve YES if the 2025 democracy index for the United States released by the EIU is higher than 7.85, NO if it's less than or equal to 7.85
Resolves NA if Trump didnt win the 2024 presidential election
Economic Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
Compare the price against this market to estimate if Trump will worsen Democracy in the US
credit to @PlasmaBallin for inspiring this question
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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