When will a human land on the Mars?
When will a human land on the Mars?
Plus
15
Ṁ3442060
1.7%
2025-2029
13%
2030-2034
19%
2035-2039
16%
2040-2044
13%
2045-2049
7%
2050-2054
7%
2055-2059
23%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
When will the first humans land on Mars?
2040
When will SpaceX land humans on Mars?
2037
When will a human first set foot on Mars?
When will a (living) human first set foot on Mars?
2039
In what year will a human walk on Mars?
In what year will a human walk on Mars?
2035
Will a human land on Phobos or Deimos before a human lands on Mars?
14% chance
When will the first humans set foot on Mars?
Will humans landing on the Mars in this decade?
7% chance
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10% chance