Will the LK-99 market be below 4% for the day?

Basic

Ṁ52k

2025

ALL

90%

Jan 1, 2025

This market is a daily derivative market for the LK-99 market. It predicts whether the LK-99 market will stay at or below 4% for the day

Resolves Yes if there are over 20000Mana of 4% NO-limit-orders on the market that stayed up for over 6 hours in the day (ET time)
(this rule is to prevent sniping from easily manipulating market price)
To make it clear, as long as the 1%,2%,3%,4% no limit orders sum to over 20000 Mana, this market resolves Yes.

If you have evidence on the market's no limit order, please post it to the comment. If nothing was being posted to the comment before the day is over, I will use my judgement to resolve the market. No dispute on resolution after a market is resolved.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#LK-99

#LK-99 Derivative Markets

Get

1,000

and

3.00

27 Comments

21 Holders

806 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ423 NO

April 30 can resolve @AmmonLam

@AmmonLam bump

sold Ṁ139 NO

April 29 can resolve @AmmonLam

bought Ṁ20 NO

Last 3 days can resolve @AmmonLam

April 26th can resolve @AmmonLam

Apr 25th can resolve @AmmonLam

Last four days can resolve @AmmonLam

Nonetheless, seems like Apr 12 resolves YES.

Well that's unexpected. Who's betting yes there anyway lol

sold Ṁ250 NO

@JureSmolar

Who's betting yes there

I mean the superconductor market. The paper matches every superconductor swindle to date.

@JureSmolar I know. Maybe I'm getting old and people didn't watch the same cartoons as I did. Anyway the same person is betting YES on LK-99 as who always bets YES on LK-99.

@chrisjbillington Ahh that’s how you meant it. I’m a 2000 kid so I only vaguely remember that evil genius mouse dude 😅

Not sure if you intended for the market to close for betting btw, guessing that stayed from the march questions

The first 50k limit order from yesterday is still up. The sums are increasing. Resolves YES.

Actually didn't even notice it's still 5am there lol. Pardon for one more hour, though I doubt they'll be all filled any time today.

For proper resolution.

Surprisingly a lot of yes betting has happened since yesterday. Still healthily resolves YES today, even with just jason's limit order.

More than 20k of the same limit orders still up, many more have been added that are also over 6h now, so this will take a few days at least to get through unless some YES whale shows up.

Tthe same limit orders are still up.

Same limit orders as yesterday are still up, already 6 hours into the day.

Apr 6 already has 6 hours of surviving limit orders

Just a ping to check before resolving. I attached res criteria under the Apr 4 thread.

bought Ṁ30 YES

Apr 4 resolves YES. Your own holding exceeds 6 hours. Attached the ET timestamp for reference to my local time.

bought Ṁ150 NO

@JureSmolar oops... didnt read your comment before resolving Apr 4. I've asked for mod help in unresolving this

@AmmonLam I trust it will be resolved well. Attached is the status for today; Chris' orders have now stayed up for 6 hours, all falling within Apr 5 in ET, which should thus resolve YES.

bought Ṁ200 YES

@JureSmolar resolved Apr 4 back to yes

Related questions

Related questions