Would Trump let AI wipe out humanity? (2030)
Would Trump let AI wipe out humanity? (2030)
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A conditional market to tease out which 2024 presidential candidate is going to save us from AI.
If Donald Trump is not elected president in the 2024 US Presidential election, this resolves as N/A. Otherwise it has the same resolution as:
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The title is kind of confusing, because the question is actually more like "Will Trump let AI kill us all?"
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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