"We are happy to announce that the Blue Lagoon is now open with adjusted opening hours.
...
We’re currently rerouting access to our site, working on road adjustments and the construction of a new parking lot. As the main road is temporarily closed, please take road no. 44: Hafnarvegur. Note that some navigation apps might suggest alternative routes, so refer to the map below for guidance.

Due to construction all guests, whether arriving by private car or bus, must park at a designated parking area in Grindavík."


Per
Question will resolve yes if the Blue Lagoon is destroyed (fully or to such an extent it is inoperable) by a volcanic eruption in 2023 or 2024. Closures for safety reasons do not count as destruction.
it seems a fairly clear no unless there is further destruction.

@ChristopherRandles The question that needs to be answered is whether the parking area is considered required for operation. And to note that it remained closed until an alternative process was put in place.

@Arinbjorn What part of "it is open" fails to answer whether "the parking area is considered required for operation"?

@ChristopherRandles because it wasn’t open at some point within the question scope, due to the parking lot being destroyed. The question was whether this would happen before end of 2024. Not whether it would be inoperable 23:59 2024-12-31

It was closed during eruption, but as soon as the eruption ended it has reopened. Yes there is disruption to transport to and from site but it is operating. Closure during eruption for safety reasons should not result in a yes resolution by my reading of this question.

Do you accept that it is operating now before they have replaced/rebuilt car park?

If it is open now without car park rebuild surely it is not inoperable?

When it reopens immediately after eruption ceasing and not waiting for car park rebuild seems like strong indicator that reason for closure is safety and not because car park is necessary to operate.

@ChristopherRandles Clearly it was closed for safety after the parking lot was destroyed. It wasn't closed because the parking lot was destroyed since it reopened when the safety concerns abated, not when they rebuilt the parking lot.

@Mactuary I think it was closed for safety before the parking lot was destroyed. Probably fairly close to time eruption started rather than lava getting close. Safety includes possibility of gas emissions as well as from lava that was heading away at end of eruption.

@ChristopherRandles It opened before the eruption finished but after a new process was put in place to correct for the missing parking infrastructure

@Arinbjorn So that sounds like you are saying the new process meant blue lagoon was operable not inoperable.

What does the timing of the opening tell us?
Is it likely safety related as eruption became less vigorous and less threatening? Or is it that it couldn't open until car park rebuilt?
Is there any reason to think they couldn't have arranged parking in Grindavik and bussing customers very shortly after the car park was being destroyed? (other than safety)
Do you have a date (&time) they reopened? What was the main thing happening at that time which allowed it to reopen then not earlier or later?

To me it seems a clear case of the car park being useful but not vital to Blue Lagoon being operable.

The question was quite clear
"Closures for safety reasons do not count as destruction."
together with
Question will resolve yes if the Blue Lagoon is destroyed (fully or to such an extent it is inoperable) by a volcanic eruption in 2023 or 2024.

It is not fully destroyed nor is it destroyed to an extent that it is inoperable.

I disagree with the 12-10-2024 update being a fair summary. It is clear temporary closure for safety does not count as destruction. Here we have safety closure at same time as a partial destruction which is clearly not sufficient to render it inoperable. So adding "at any time" in that update is just not correct. The question before the update was possibly not clear about a temporary closure for something that was neither safety nor full destruction nor destruction to such an extent that Blue lagoon is inoperable. However timing of closure and openings seem safety related so that lack of clarity seems unlikely to matter.

Suppose eruption caused safety closure and a minor 3 hour repair job before Blue Lagoon could reopen. As a result Blue lagoon reopened 5 hours later than might have been possible if the minor repair was not needed.

I would suggest this is not "Blue Lagoon is destroyed (fully or to such an extent it is inoperable) by a volcanic eruption in 2023 or 2024"

With the update it could easily be argued that this is enough for a yes resolution whereas without the update I would argue such a short temporary closure should not cause a yes resolution as not really being in the same ball park as full destruction/ such extent that it is inoperable.

In the case we actually face, there seems no indication of any closure other than for safety.

@traders parts of the area now being destroyed by the latest eruption. If this continues it might lead to a difficult resolution choice https://www.ruv.is/frettir/innlent/2024-11-20-hraunid-rennur-yfir-bilastaedi-blaa-lonsins-428061

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2024/11/21/the_entire_car_park_is_now_covered_in_lava/
The entire parking lot of the Blue Lagoon is now under lava, except for a few street lamps that stand at the end of what used to be a parking lot. Then the lava seems to have spread a little and, among other things, just now passed over a sign directing visitors to the car park.

The lava continues to flow along the defense wall west of the Blue Lagoon.

This is the main parking lot of the Blue Lagoon and there are parking spaces for around 350 cars as well as bus parking. Helga Árnadóttir, manager of sales, operations and services at the Blue Lagoon, told mbl.is earlier today that access to the Blue Lagoon needs to be assessed when the time comes to see whether there are possibilities to use other access routes for vehicles.

"It is impossible to tell the damage at this point, but we will see this better as time goes on and how we can respond." There are some parking options at the reservoir, but we need to take a closer look at it in the future," Árnadóttir said.

Is https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/eruption-begins-on-the-sundhnukur-fissure-swarm
Is this showing the car park is outside the barrier?
(small road loop around parking area?)

Nearest vent that was source of lava flow towards blue lagoon seems to have ceased and it is just one vent further away releasing lava eastwards and not considered threat to infrastructure.

If the destroyed car park is outside the barrier, then

Website says
"Protective barriers

Specialized protective barriers have been constructed at Svartsengi, safeguarding Blue Lagoon’s vital infrastructure against potential lava flows. This precautionary measure is based on expert analysis of various volcanic eruption scenarios."

This would seem to be saying that the car park is not considered to be "vital infrastructure" of Blue Lagoon. That seems reasonable to me, the car park is useful for transporting guests & employees etc

So while there is some damage, I don't think this amounts to "Blue Lagoon destroyed". It can still be used they just need way(s) of getting people there.

However I hold no so above could be a biased view.

This feels undervalued considering that an eruption within 5km could be imminent according to scientists: https://www.ruv.is/english/2023-12-29-increased-risk-of-eruption-north-of-grindavik-400906