What security measures will Israel have put in place 6 months after the war in Gaza is over?
What security measures will Israel have put in place 6 months after the war in Gaza is over?
Plus
12
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78%
Taking territory from Gaza to create a buffer zone on the border
78%
Stationing a permanent Israeli military presence in Gaza
74%
Taking control of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt
69%
Conducting regular raids in Gaza (similar to the West Bank)
45%
Expelling lower-level members of Hamas from Gaza
I'll use the date determined by this market to decide when the war in Gaza is over, so the close date will be extended as needed. I won't bet on this market since the resolution of some of these options could be ambiguous. Feel free to add more options to the market!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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