Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]
Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]
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Continuation of https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1b .
There's, what, 4 companies in the world that have hit this milestone? (looked it up, it was 6: Apple, MSFT, Saudi Aramco, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN.)
I'm leveraging the probability by 10x as follows: if at market close time, this would resolve to NO, I'll first roll a d10, and only resolve NO if the d10 comes up with a 0. So for example, a 30% chance in this market would mean a 3% chance IRL.
(I'm hoping I did the math right; if not, lmk and I'll N/A this)
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I think this amplification method actually amplifies the odds by 10x, not the probability. See https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/100-amplified-odds-details-within-w.
As an example with probabilities, if there is a 50% chance of hitting 1T (which resolves YES), then there's a 45% chance of N/A and a 5% chance of NO, so the chance of YES in non-N/A resolutions is 50/(50+5) = 90.1%.
Same example with odds: probability 50% = odds 1, multiply by 10 -> odds 10 = probability 10/(10+1) = 90.1%.
Oh yes, I realized I hadn't actually thought about it but I think you're right that N/Aing is the correct result to make this work.
Yeah the time-preference will hypothetically be solved once we bring back loans; just wanted to capture this idea down in a market for future reference.
you should explain what happens if you roll a non-0; presumably you're N/Aing it if a non-zero is rolled, but good to be explicit. I think this kind of lever is ill-suited to long-term predictions, as I'm not sure how the time preference interacts with the leveraged odds thing.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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