Which year will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone"?
Which year will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone"?
Basic
3
Ṁ1612034
1.4%
2025
4%
2026
15%
2027
9%
2028
9%
2029
9%
2030
9%
2031
9%
2032
9%
2033
26%
Later than 2033 or never
This refers to the third book in the Kingkiller Chronicles, even if it winds up being published under a different name. The question will resolve to the year the first readers actually receive their copies (physical or digital), not to any pre-order date.
In case Rothfuss dies or the book has not been released by 2034, The question will be resolved to "Later than 2033 or never".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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