Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Plus
53
Ṁ38732030
62%
Clarence Thomas
13%
Sonya Sotomayor
0.8%
Amy Coney Barrett
2%
Elena Kagan
0.5%
Brett Kavanaugh
7%
John Roberts
14%
Samuel Alito
0.3%
Neil Gorsuch
0.2%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
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