This question was an excellent example of prediction market bias. The answer was obvious from Jan 1

I disagree

@Avery there's a lot more fluctuations in the temperature from year to year than one would think (even if there is a clear and very worrying trend upwards). Plus La Nina came later than expected.

If anything you are showing your own bias with your comment.

@Agh the La Nina pattern was predicted well before the start of the year. That, and the forcing caused by the removal of sulphur dioxide from shipping exhaust, are why I bought in initially.

Estimate that it will be the warmest year is now >0.95 https://x.com/hausfath/status/1821952219463479656

@BTE we need to know what data set you're using for resolution.

NOAA just released their latest report, which estimates there's currently a 45% chance 2024 will be the hottest year on record. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202402

To have a proper estimate I forecasted the gobal temperature increase starting from 1977. Considering data before that year would compromise the accuracy of the forecast since the world has been changing really fast in the last 40 years compared to the first half of last century. My regression model (adjusted R square = 90%) forecastes a 1.05°C for 2024. Therefore, I believe next year will not be the hottest ever recorded, which is 2016 with 1.08°C.

@GiovanniGhedini

@GiovanniGhedini Seems very wrong considering 2023 will be 0.15°+ hotter than the prior record. The highest temperature in your entire 2024-2028 table is only 0.09° hotter than 2016...

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/will-global-temperatures-exceed-15c

Will global temperatures exceed 1.5C in 2024?

With a growing El Nino event next year is shaping up to be a record-breaker. But by how much?

Time to heat up the planet.

The question is about 2024, but your description refers to the current year. Just to make sure, are you asking about 2024 or actually 2023 and typo'ed it?

@__nobody Dang I did typo it.

@BTE wait, so which year is this for then? I don't see a description, just 2024 in the title

@AlQuinn Yes I erased the description. There is also a 2023 market. /BTE/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re-f6c3123a520b

@BTE ah good, just double checking. I'm NO here mostly because mean-reversion