Will Trump pardon or grant clemency to Eric Adams?
Basic
5
Ṁ5532029
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Eric Adams receives a pardon or clemency from Trump before the deadline of the question.
Resolves NO if the question elapses before such a pardon or clemency is granted.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I am somewhat disappointed in myself that I didn't consider this outcome. Nevertheless I think the current market value of 8% is surprisingly low. Note that the charges were dropped "without prejudice" and can be resumed at any time. The market lasts until 2029 and I think its pretty likely that Trump will just go absolutely ham with protective pardons on his way out the door, especially for people like Adams.
filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 YES at 18% (cancelled)
bought Ṁ20 NO
Despite recent reports... I'm thinking Trump wouldn't do it before a bunch of Jan 6 people... And in a few months he will have forgotten Adams exists
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