When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls?
When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls?
33
Ṁ53882026
73%
Q2 2025
10%
Q3 2025
3%
Q4 2025
3%
Q1 2026
2%
Q2 2026
2%
Q3 2026
2%
Q4 2026
5%
not before 2027
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Only FORSA & INSA counts
Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tiebreaker Rule Clarification:
A scenario where there is a draw (i.e., the AfD ties with another party in the polls) will not count as the AfD being the largest party.
Update 2025-04-08 (PST): - CDU/CSU counting: The CDU/CSU alliance is counted as a single party when determining which party is the largest according to the polls. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
If the AfD leads in FORSA but not in INSA (or vice versa), the market will resolve to yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@traders First poll where the AfD is the largest party with 25% (doesn't count of course because it's not INSA or Forsa)
answered18d
Q2 2025
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What is Manifold?
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