Blogpost titled "The [disease] of [emotion]" by @ScottAlexander before 2026 because of a manifold market?
Blogpost titled "The [disease] of [emotion]" by @ScottAlexander before 2026 because of a manifold market?
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Ṁ412026
34%
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1M
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He's got to be doing it on purpose, right?
See IsaacKing's market:
If that market resolves YES and ScottAlexander mentions having titled a post this way because of that market, this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, resolves NO at the start of 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ10 NO1y
I'm pretty sure that, now that both markets exist, Scott's pretty likely to mention at least one if he ever does write such a post
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00