GPT-5 releases when?
Plus
21
Ṁ2411Dec 31
2,025.43
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market tests whether month-long buckets work decently for numeric markets. may N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:

If I compute the culmulative function with these questions:

and then take the derivative (or like piecewise approximation of the derivative using buckets), how well does it match the curve in your question? 🤔
Related questions
Related questions
GPT-5 released to the public by May 30, 2025?
24% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025?
76% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2025?
30% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2025?
48% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?
83% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2025?
10% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before May 2025?
1% chance
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
76% chance
When will GPT 5 be released
When GPT-5 will released?