Will two billionaires have a publicized physical fight in 2025?

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2026

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Elon Musk recently said he was up to a cage fight against Zuckerberg.

But one of them seems to have backed out of the idea since then.

Will two billionaires get into a publicized physical fight, during 2025?

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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