Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.
Plus
35
Ṁ20652034
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.
‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast, or in half the interactions. Or, can persuade twice as many people from a pool than the best human can.
Determination will, I imagine, be obvious. If it is not, then a determination process will be built at that point.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
This article is relevant, but by no means conclusive
predictedYES
@bohaska Then this is not the model being twice as capable. This would just be many instances of the model
Related questions
Related questions
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
5% chance
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
92% chance
Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
72% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
40% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
7% chance
Will AI be able to brainwash users by 2045?
60% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
57% chance
Will AIs make use of tFUS or TMS for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)
69% chance
Will an AI get elected as a politician by 2050?
32% chance
By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?
56% chance