Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?
Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?
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On August 25th, 1994, the Pan-American Health Organization - PAHO - published a report deeming the wild poliovirus statistically erradicated in the Americas, three years after the last case of indigenous infetion registered in Peru in 1991.
Since than, no local transmission of the wild variants of polio has been registered in American. However, PAHO has pointed a high risk of reintroduction of the virus in various countries in the Western Hemisphere.
This question resolves as YES if at least one new case of local transmission of wild poliovirus is confirmed in any country in the Americas before the closing date. For the case to qualify as locally transmitted it should take place between two people that have not traveled to places where there is indigenous transmission of the virus. Also, cases confirmed to be due to polio vaccine reversion will not be considered.
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What is Manifold?
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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