Will the 5 year survival rate of glioblastoma (GBM) exceed 10% by June 18 2032?
Will the 5 year survival rate of glioblastoma (GBM) exceed 10% by June 18 2032?
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4
Ṁ87
2032
65%
chance
The 5 year survival rate for GBM was reported to be 6.8% by the National Brain Tumor Society (https://braintumor.org/take-action/about-gbm/)
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1y

@traders As the creator is inactive, I'll clarify the resolution criteria as a moderator:

This market will resolve based on the most recent statistical report published by the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) as of market close. Resolution will be based on the five-year relative survival rate for all ages and diagnoses of glioblastoma considered in the report.

For example, in their 2023 report (https://doi.org/10.1093/neuonc/noad149), CBTRUS report a relative survival rate of 6.9% (95% confidence interval 6.8–7.1) for glioblastoma across all age groups (table 10).

The point estimate (i.e. disregarding the confidence interval) must be greater than 10.0% for this market to resolve YES, if it's 10.0% or less, then this market resolves NO.

1y

Market with more precisely-defined resolution criteria (and somewhat different threshold/end date):

I think this is a good market and a good way to operationalize progress in the pharmaceutical industry and management of rarer kinds of cancer.

Could you potentially clarify how you will resolve the market if there is no data from exactly June 18, 2032?

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