Will Canada experience more than 5 million hectares burned by EOY 2025?
9
Ṁ779
Dec 31
65%
chance
3.9 million hectares burned
4.0 million hectares burned
4.1 million hectares burned
4.2 million hectares burned
4.3 million hectares burned
4.4 million hectares burned

I will not trade on this market.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59pm Central Time December 31, 2025, the total area burned by wildfires in Canada during the 2025 wildfire season exceeds 5.000 million hectares. The primary source for verification will be the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre's National Fire Situation Report, accessible at https://ciffc.net/. If the report indicates that the total area burned in 2025 is greater than 5 million hectares, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

#World
#Natural Disasters
#Climate
#Canada
#Public Health
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Just FYI, I am checking the report daily and adding an annotation for the total amount burned to the chart. The annotations should be assumed to be accurate to the date shown.

What are the chances we stay under 4.5 do you think?

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