2024 Tipping-point state in the Rust Belt? | Manifold

2024 Tipping-point state in the Rust Belt?

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Dec 31

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Resolves Yes if the Tipping-point state in the 2024 US Presidential Election is is New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, or Wisconsin.

Primary resolution source on which state is the tipping-point will be FiveThirtyEight.

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The final 2020 model assigned a 54.4% probability of one of these states being the tipping-point.

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