Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

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This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal. That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.

Feb 6, 1:13pm: ~~Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040?~~ → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Chess

#Game theory

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If strong proofs are required, then this is unlikely to ever resolve. If mere knowledge-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt is required, we already have https://www.chessdb.cn/queryc_en/.

@CosmoBobak what does this website supposed to show?

opened a Ṁ75 YES at 27% order

We solved busy beaver, this doesn't seem that much harder given increasing compute

bought Ṁ100 NO from 27% to 24%

If both players are able to force a draw no matter which white's first move is, does this resolve YES as all moves are "optimal"?

Yes, if we have a proof of that fact then any move would be known to be optimal, and therefore at least one move would be known to be optimal.

I would expect g4 and f3 to be losing for white, while everything else draws. I seriously doubt that will be proved by 2040 though.

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