In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?
In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?
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2048
expected
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Pandemic severity tradeoffs include mortality, transmissibility, scale, and any other relevant considerations.
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@CarsonGale In the year: if I bet 2030, I only win if it happens in 2030 precisely. By the year: if I bet 2030, I win if it happens any time between now and the end of 2030.
In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
When will the next pandemic occur?
2038
Will the next pandemic be worse than COVID?
Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?
54% chance
Will the next pandemic be overall worse than covid-19 in absolute, global terms?
28% chance
When will we have another pandemic killing more people than COVID-19?
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42% chance
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
63% chance
Will there be another major pandemic before the end of 2030
41% chance