is "Stargate" an independent org for this

Missing DeepSeek

Huffing the copium

@MalachiteEagle I could add it if you think its markedly different than the ccp option?

@ChrisCanal I think so, yes. The CCP might want to have multiple competing companies in China, and nationalise them after they reach AGI

@ChrisCanal note that in this case I think the market crash is because of insider trading, people taking out short positions because they had advance knowledge of the Taiwan tariffs, and not because of deepseek. But deepseek is very much part of the narrative now because that's the explanation the media ran with. So, relevant for this question

Interesting update. The US government may be trying to fund an AGI Manhattan Project : https://x.com/deanwball/status/1858893954982232549

x.com

@ChrisCanal A government commission has made that as a recommendation*

@ElliotDavies yes, and as a result, the "US government may be trying to fund an AGI Manhattan Project".

Don't star me unless your correctly identifying a mistake. I'm intentionally giving you the assist here for learning purposes.

@ChrisCanal It's always good to write with as much precision as possible - I believe your statement could mislead others into thinking this came out of the Biden administration. This would be a much stronger claim than a policy recommendation by a commission.

@ElliotDavies I think you meant your're**

@ChrisCanal I definitely expected a higher caliber of conversation and epistemics when I originally joined manifold lmao

@ElliotDavies Relax I’m just kidding with you

What if AGI achieves a solution that uses different LLMs as required, e.g. the notdiamond.ai metamodel, which currently outperforms all LLMs in benchmarks? Would something like this be considered AGI?

Nvidia

@mariopasquato Idk, should they have been there own option?

Eh maybe

I've read this yesterday and put my bet on Other;)

"better than humans" meaning better than the median human, better than the median human professional, or better than all humans?

Eg if AIs regularly write NYT bestsellers but don't crack the top 3 most sold books that year, does this count as AGI re: writing?

@Linch I don’t think writing a best seller tells us enough about general capabilities. But if the same AI can do many things, like exceed human performance on the benchmarks I mentioned, then it is more indicative of AGI, than only being good at writing.

@ChrisCanal if no one creates AGI by 2030 what will you do? Extend resolution time, resolve Other, or N/A?

@parhizj obviously NA

@parhizj It hadn't crossed my mind as possibility, but it feels like I should extend. I really really don't think this will come into play though. Why do you think it should be NA @ElliotDavies ?

@ChrisCanal well resolving "other" would be a misresolution (it would clearly imply some other org had created agi.

You could extend, but you should probably do that sooner rather than now, because resolution dates are typically considered an extension of the resolution criteria. Modifying resolution dates modifies the relative odds

We most likely won't have AGI by 2030. https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030

I would bet my life that we have AGI before 2030. I would need some crazy evidence to think otherwise. But my trading history blows, so I wouldn’t trust me if I were u. Lmao

@MatthewLichti It's quite possible that market has already turned positive, but it's difficult to test because of finetuning