This market resolves "yes" if Manifold Markets adds a dedicated forum or discussion board feature by the end of 2025. A forum must be a dedicated space for user discussions separate from market comments.
Resolution will be based on public announcement from Manifold team or direct observation of the feature on Manifold.Markets.
Update 2024-28-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A public announcement from Manifold Markets declaring the addition of a forum feature with a release date before the end of 2025 will resolve the market positively.
If the release date is changed and the feature is launched after 2025, the market remains resolved based on the announcement.
1,000
3.00My bot just bought a bunch of no shares so I’m technically biased in the other direction, but fwiw I agree with @jim. It might not be like, the most feature rich forum ever but there’s a dedicated url for posts that are discussions separate from markets? Like it does seem to meet the criteria. I’m not sure what’s missing.
A forum must be a dedicated space for user discussions separate from market comments.
I wouldn’t think this would qualify. Posts are just markets without a market, not a “dedicated space”. Similar functionality as when people made a poll or etc for discussion. But up to creator
@jim the forum itself is supposed to be the “dedicated space” for user discussion (not just that there are any spaces at all out there).
The closest we have at the moment is that technically you can apply a market type filter to browse. (If that’s what qualifies, why wouldn’t polls have counted—they’re also markets without markets, can be filtered for in the exact same way, etc)
Obvs not how I read the question a few months ago but no one asked creator about how post-markets would count so Will depend on their intent
come on, posts are not forums. is twitter a 'dedicated forum'?
@jim Hmm... this is a tough one.
The resolution criteria says it requires a "dedicated space". To be honest, I hadn't really considered this possibility when asking the question.
That said, I don't quite see market type filter "posts" as counting since I see this as more as an option/way of viewing a broader space than a dedicated space. Without committing myself, the argument of it being a dedicated space would be stronger if they were to add a direct link to this view in the sidebar. Additionally, you can only view discussion posts from that view, you can't create them.
Happy to hear additional arguments though.
Of course, if you want this market to resolve positively, you could always lobby the team to add features to get it across the line :-).
@ChrisLeong Not sure what would count as a dedicated discussion board if not this:
https://manifold.markets/posts
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@ChrisLeong I think with Manifold not calling it a forum or a discussion board, and with its format being more an aggregation of disjointed posts than a normal forum UI, this is not sufficient. I entered the market for the first time in reponse to thinking this didn't look sufficient andf that folks were overvaluing.
@Panfilo I'm genuinely confused, an aggregation of discussion posts is literally the definition of a discussion board. Not really sure what they could do to make it more discussion-boardy other than, as you suggest, plastering the words "This is a discussion board." at the top of the page.
The res criteria have clearly been met, I am 99.99% confident the market will resolve YES once Chris logs back in.
@Panfilo I'm don't understand the twitter point. I think Twitter is different from discussion boards because users follow users so each user gets a unique feed instead of visiting a unified board.
But the Manifold discussion board doesn't work like Twitter, it works like a traditional discussion board.
Anyway, let me go through the res criteria to make sure they really have been met.
This market resolves "yes" if Manifold Markets adds a dedicated forum or discussion board feature by the end of 2025. A forum must be a dedicated space for user discussions separate from market comments.
OK, there is a dedicated discussion board feature - manifold.markets/posts
And it is before the end of 2025.
And it js a dedicated space for user discussions seperate from market comments.
Resolution will be based on public announcement from Manifold team or direct observation of the feature on Manifold.Markets.
There was an announcement post for discussion posts, and the discussion board can be observed directly at manifold.markets/posts
Not really sure what I'm missing here
"dedicated forum or discussion board feature" != "any place to discuss things". i can't know creator's original intent, but i'd wager they were comparing it to e.g. LessWrong, which have a recognizable/distint "forum" (that goes beyond "filtering to a certain market type used for discussion).
e.g. the manifold.markets/posts filter also includes posts from 2+ years ago (when the feature was first implemented, e.g. bangers like this). would the original (then deprecated) feature have counted for this market? not sure—but if someone had asked me "did manifold previously have a forum feature", i would have said "no" (even though I knew posts existed).
anyways they did partially clarify the criteria. i guess adding it to the sidebar would strengthen the case? but it sounds like that might not be sufficient? not sure exactly where they'd draw the line, will probably be a judgment call based on how the feature evolves
@Ziddletwix I'd say that the discussion posts may not have qualified 2 years ago (unless there was a dedicated discussion board then too).
The posts board isn't just a filter IMO, e.g. it includes a create post button
@jim Yes, and beyond this I would say a key feature of forums (on most sites) is (nearly) all replies being visible from the base post page. e.g. within a forum, on a post, I can see all levels of replies. On reddit, I can see the post, and all top level replies, nearly all 2nd level, many many 3rd level etc. this is the same on older style forums like mmo champion, tom's hardware etc.
twitter is decidedly NOT that way. You keep having to open sublevels
I just noticed an ambiguity here which I wanted to clarify.
The headline asks whether Manifold will "add" a forum feature by the end of 2025, but the fine print says that the Manifold AI generated for me says that "public announcement" would resolve the market, so this suggests that the market should resolve positively if they announce that the feature will be added with a release date before the end of 2025, and that even if the feature ends up being delayed and being launched after 2025 the market would have already resolved.