Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026? | Manifold

Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026?

Plus

22

Ṁ1354

2026

61%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves true if I judge, based on the common opinion among deep learning researchers, that transformers remain the most popular architecture in deep learning research at the start of 2026. If the answer is not clear, resolves true if at least 50% of arXiv papers from 2025 on A.I. mention transformers, otherwise resolves false.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Apparently there is already a very similar market!

https://manifold.markets/LeoGao/will-transformer-based-architecture

Related questions

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

6) An alternative to the transformer architecture will see meaningful adoption.

Will Mamba be the de-facto paradigm for LLMs over transformers by 2025?

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Will any open-source Transformers LLM model that function as a dense mixture of experts be released by end of 2024?

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?

Related questions

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

6) An alternative to the transformer architecture will see meaningful adoption.

Will any open-source Transformers LLM model that function as a dense mixture of experts be released by end of 2024?

Will Mamba be the de-facto paradigm for LLMs over transformers by 2025?

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules