OpenAI will launch an audio only smart home device in the next twelve months
OpenAI will launch an audio only smart home device in the next twelve months
➕
Plus
97
Ṁ17k
May 15
5%
chance

Inspired by this tweet:

Resolves to YES if OpenAI releases an audio only smart device before May 14, 2025.

I will resolve to true if it’s either a device manufactured by OpenAI or if a third-party releases but it runs OpenAI software exclusively.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
5mo
11mo

Does it count if the device is made by some third party company, and exclusively uses the open ai api, but open ai isn’t involved and doesn’t mention it. Or OpenAi needs to come out and be like here it is the official open ai smart home device

11mo

@eclair4151 Seems like that's covered by "I will resolve to true if it’s either a device manufactured by OpenAI or if a third-party releases but it runs OpenAI software exclusively."

11mo

@ChrisPrichard The last sentence makes it seem like any random company can make a smart speaker that happens to exclusively use the Open AI api, but has no input from open ai themselves

11mo

@eclair4151 Yeah - that's my read.

11mo

@ChrisPrichard - as written, you’re right: does not requirement explicit acknowledgement.

I’d be surprised if there’s not some sort of acknowledgement (à la works with Alexa) though.

If there is a third-party audio only smart home device, and it exclusively uses OpenAI APIs (so not like “pick your model of choice”), I will resolve to TRUE.

11mo

@ColinD So Apple integrating OpenAI APIs into HomePod resolves true?

11mo

@voodoo If there are no other companies models used, is my read.

11mo

@ChrisPrichard That’s a pretty crappy title then.

sold Ṁ37 YES11mo

@voodoo Yeah, I was a bit surprised by that criteria!

11mo

@voodoo The HomePod case would only resolve to true if Apple says they’re moving it to be exclusively powered by OpenAI (and basically deprecating Siri and/or anything else built by Apple).

I am open to adding criteria that it has to be endorsed explicitly by OpenAI as well.

11mo

Basically the case I am saying does not count is if you basically have an OpenAI "skill" that integrates with Siri/Homepod or Alexa/Echo, that does not count to me. If you have an existing smart home device maker come out and say, "This is now exclusively runs through OpenAI" then that meets the description. And, I think that would be relatively huge news.

Apple saying, "hey we can now let you connect to OpenAI via Siri" would not count. Same for adding an official Alexa skill for OpenAI.

I did not say in the title the device also has to be manufactured by OpenAI because that's obviously a much, much lower probability event. I think the three clearest and most likely yes outcomes are:
1. OpenAI manufacturers and releases a smart home audio-only device under their brand.
2. OpenAI partners with a third-party to release an official smart home audio-only device under shared branding.
3. A third-party company launches a non-explicitly endorsed, but exclusively using OpenAI, audio only smart home (like a kickstarter or something). However, this is the case that if I add the "explicit endorsement" criteria would disqualify.

Does this help with clarifying?

11mo

@eclair4151 Yeah but that launched almost a year ago: https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-first-gpt-powered-smart-home-platform-is-here/

It’s in the “next” twelve months. Not in the past.

11mo

@ColinD Right sorry should have clarified just want to confirm that would have counted

@ColinD Oh it’s plenty clear. Just not from the title. A third party using OpenAI APIs ain’t OpenAI launching hardware, regardless of exclusivity. In the exclusive HomePod case absolutely nothing has been launched by OpenAI.

The title implies OpenAI getting into the hardware game, which they won’t.

11mo

It’s fairly well documented that Alexa et al are losing a shit ton of money. While it’s easy to argue that OpenAI has a more compelling product than Alexa etc, it’s not clear to me that it has a more profitable product.

11mo

OpenAI is not a hardware company. This would make zero sense. It makes way more sense for them to partner with Google, Amazon,etc who already have devices

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules