In what year will an AI successfully beat The Talos Principle?
In what year will an AI successfully beat The Talos Principle?
Basic
3
Ṁ1452034
57%
2028
31%
2026
31%
2027
31%
2029
31%
Later
20%
2030
20%
2031
20%
2032
20%
2033
20%
2034
6%
2025
5%
2024
Must complete all necessary puzzles to beat the game, but does not need to collect any bonus stars. The AI cannot use excessive glitches to clip through walls with superhuman precision. Cannot have excessive gameplay footage, or text or video walkthroughs, or answers from internet posts about the game, in its training data, nor may it look up such information during the run.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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