Many years, a LessWrong survey / census has been run, asking a variety of questions. There were gaps in 2018, 2019, and 2021, with surveys re-starting in 2022 and 2023. The survey got 186 responses in 2022 and 558 responses in 2023. How many responses will it get in 2024?
NB: if no survey is run in 2024, I'll consider that 0 responses. Since the survey is unofficial, I will use my own judgement in deciding what counts as "the" survey but I expect it to be obvious (basically the most prominent survey claiming to be "the" LW 2024 survey).
1,000
3.00I expect it to be obvious that this one is the survey, since I'm the one who ran 2022 and 2023 and I'm running it in 2024.
You should all be aware that Manifold is generally fine with insider trading, I can totally look at the submission count, and I don't think I have any duties or commitments to keep the submission count private. =D