When will China invade Taiwan

Plus

106

Ṁ23k

2050

Before 2026

17%

Before 2027

29%

Before 2028

37%

Before 2029

43%

Before 2030

56%

Before 2035

62%

Before 2040

72%

Before 2050

Resolved

Before 2025

Must be an attempt at invading the main island.

A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#China Taiwan potential conflict

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36% for 2028 is so high!

reposted

Just sense checking this market, would people really stand by a 15% chance of China invading this year and a 36% chance of an invasion during the Trump presidency?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Daniel_MC I think this multi option markets tend to drift a bit away from the many arbitraged Y/N options

@Daniel_MC yeh it doesn’t make sense to me. I figured I’d make a neat profit from betting no on everything

goated banner

bought Ṁ10 YES

You all should read more Noahpinion. War is coming. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update

@jonsimon I wonder if a blockade would play out similar to the Berlin blockage.

To clarify a blockade alone wouldn't cause this to resolve yes.

@Daniel_MC Would a several year blockade starving-out Taiwan followed by acquiesce followed by China "voluntarily" occupying Taiwan count?

@jonsimon that's gray.

At first glance I would say yes, a blockade is an act of war under international law, Taiwan surrenders, and troops occupy their territory.

Does anyone disagree @traders ? If not I'll update the criteria.

why no taiwan invade china

@astyerche We need a question on which first, AGI or China invade Taiwan. Will the help of a BASED pro-US AGI, maybe Taiwan can invade China.

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