How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
➕
Plus
18
Ṁ790
2025
0.8%
1-5
2%
6-10
27%
11-15
39%
16-20
20%
21-25
6%
26-30
2%
31-35
0.8%
36-40
0.8%
41-45
0.8%
Other

Resolves according to the first C-SPAN Presidential Historian Survey where Biden is ranked (I think this will be the year after he leaves office) https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall

If the Presidential Historian Survey is never released again, then resolves YES for Other and all other options resolve NO.

The methodology in 2021 was: "a survey in which participants used a 1 ("not effective") to 10 ("very effective") scale to rate each president on 10 qualities of presidential leadership: Public Persuasion, Crisis Leadership, Economic Management, Moral Authority, International Relations, Administrative Skills, Relations with Congress, Vision/Setting an Agenda, Pursued Equal Justice for All and Performance Within the Context of the Times.

Surveys are distributed to historians, professors and other professional observers of the presidency who are drawn from databases of C-SPAN programming, research in the field and suggestions from our academic advisers. Each cycle, we reach out to past participants and add new names to the list to maintain a well-rounded list of invited participants. This year, 142 completed the survey, up from 91 in 2017.

Participants are guaranteed that their individual survey responses will remain confidential. No definitions are provided for the categories: participants are able to interpret them as they see fit to determine their rankings. Each of the 10 categories is given equal weighting in arriving at a president's total score. Survey responses are tabulated by averaging all responses in a given category for each president."

In 2021, the ranking was

1. Abraham Lincoln

  1. George Washington

  2. Franklin D. Roosevelt

  3. Theodore Roosevelt

  4. Dwight D. Eisenhower

  5. Harry S. Truman

  6. Thomas Jefferson

  7. John F. Kennedy

  8. Ronald Reagan

  9. Barack Obama

  10. Lyndon B. Johnson

  11. James Monroe

  12. Woodrow Wilson

  13. William McKinley

  14. John Adams

  15. James Madison

  16. John Quincy Adams

  17. James K. Polk

  18. William J. Clinton

  19. Ulysses S. Grant

  20. George H. W. Bush

  21. Andrew Jackson

  22. William Howard Taft

  23. Calvin Coolidge

  24. Grover Cleveland

  25. Jimmy Carter

  26. James A. Garfield

  27. Gerald R. Ford

  28. George W. Bush

  29. Chester A. Arthur

  30. Richard M. Nixon

  31. Benjamin Harrison

  32. Rutherford B. Hayes

  33. Martin Van Buren

  34. Zachary Taylor

  35. Herbert Hoover

  36. Warren G. Harding

  37. Millard Fillmore

  38. John Tyler

  39. William Henry Harrison

  40. Donald J. Trump

  41. Franklin Pierce

  42. Andrew Johnson

  43. James Buchanan

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules