Can we get clarification on how this resolves with house arrest?

Arbitrage opportunity https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

When will Trump serve time?

Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

@mudPi314 That question has only a 21% chance of 'never', BUT makes it explicit that house arrest will count if it happens after a conviction. This question doesn't make it explicit, but the obvious reading of it would be that house arrest would not count. If you think there's a ~25% chance that Trump will be sentenced to only house arrest, there's no arbitrage potential.

@AndrewHyer Yes that is correct I think. Oops. https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre-fca8baf1274c

Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies?

50% chance. The status of these two markets: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump going under house arrest. The status of this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre confirms this (though currently it is inconsistent with the "when will trump be imprisoned" market). This market resolves YES if Donald J. Trump is held under house arrest in the United States. It resolves NO if Trump dies or if the USA ceases to exist. [link preview]

https://manifold.markets/4mur1c4/will-donald-trump-be-or-claim-he-wa?r=NG11cjFjNA

Will Donald Trump be, or claim he was, sexually assaulted in prison by the end of 2026?

8% chance. Resolves Yes if Trump is sexually assaulted, or claims he was sexually assaulted. It does not have to be proven for this to resolve Yes. Resolves No if he is not sexually assaulted and does not claim he was.

How will this resolve if he spends time in jail, but not prison?

@meefburger Those terms are not very precise, but being detained in jail prior to trial will not resolve this YES; being incarcerated due to serving a prison sentences after being found guilty of a crime will.

Arbitrage opportunity? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison