The list of recent winners:
2024: Tadej Pogacar
2023: Jonas Vingegaard
2022: Jonas Vingegaard
2021: Tadej Pogacar
2020: Tadej Pogacar
2019: Egan Bernal
2018: Geraint Thomas
The 'winner' will be based on the rider awarded the trophy for the general classification at the podium presentation at the conclusion of the final stage. If there is no podium presentation but there is an announcement of the winner, this resolves based on the first person announced by the race organizer to be the winner. Changes after the final winner is announced (e.g. late disqualification) will not change the result of this market.
There is another similar market with more options and less liquidity here:
/Eliza/who-will-win-the-2025-tour-de-franc
maillot jaune
general classification
tdf gc
yellow jersey
Due to the considerable amount of liquidity at stake in this market, and the platform not allowing me to withdraw liquidity at a later date, I reserve the right to close trading on the question while the outcome is still in doubt.
1,000
3.00Race starts today, have fun.
I might need to close this question because I have so much liquidity on the answers. Maybe we can transition back to the other one in the meantime? Not sure.
Main issue is if I leave it open and Tadej crashes out, I lose like 8000 mana instantly and for absolutely no reason. But if I close it before he crashes, I can't really reopen it later because either I have to trade into everyone else's limit orders and 'steal' their mana, or just let someone else steal mine.
This is really suboptimal. I asked the team a month ago to implement the withdrawal and addition of liquidity on multiple choice and it didn't happen.
@Eliza I'm going to start out by setting a tentative closing time around the time the race is expected to start. If 'nothing' changes right away, maybe we can reopen it in a few days or something. Maybe I will need to create another new version of the same market later on?
This is a bad feeling, I was really hoping the team would help give creators tools to make markets with more than just a thousand in liquidity.
@JCE i'll think about it, but if I add him, I will probably have to buy no shares... I'm not sure I can handle that. I'm only allowed to own Yes shares in him. Maybe you can stock up on some Other for now. I'm afraid Roglic will be trading below Lipowitz in a totally open market.
@ZacharyKleinfa41 he's not the leader of his team and I don't see that he would trade above 1% which is the threshold for even being able to buy No shares, so I won't add him unless something changes.
You can buy Yes shares in Other in the meantime and if he's added you would already own him. Or you can use this other market:
@Eliza basically, the more <1% answers exist, the more it skews the percentages on all the other answers.
@Eliza If anyone is a Remco doubter you can buy into my limit order for the rest of the day!
Nice to have a market with liquidity, thanks @Eliza
I'm updating up on Jonas, he was superior in the TT today at Dauphine, seems to be in top form, and Visma looks every day better, Jorgenson had a great TT today and WvA is improving. The team will play a huge role.
Another good market from @egroj :
/egroj/will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-2025-tou