How many counties will Trump win in 2024? | Manifold

How many counties will Trump win in 2024?

Plus

1

Ṁ150

Nov 1

15%

Between 2450 and 2500

15%

Between 2500 and 2550

15%

Between 2550 and 2600

15%

Between 2600 and 2650

15%

Between 2650 and 2700

15%

Between 2700 and 2750

9%

Between 2750 and 2800

For comparison, Trump won 2622 counties in 2016 and 2574 counties in 2020. Mitt Romney won 2420.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Republican Party

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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1,000

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3.00

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You're double-counting (or not counting) the boundary numbers. And there's no "Other" so people have to bet treating the possibility of <2450 as 0% likely

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